The Apology of Chaos


One grows weary of the, “it’s a non-linear, chaotic system” apology for human failing to accurately model weather and climate. This idea seems to have stunted roots in the very different worlds of the Lorenz Butterfly, and quantum probability.

Never mind that the scales of these two worlds are wildly different, and what may be currently unknowable at quantum scale is definitely not unknowable at butterfly scale.

The logical extent of this conflation of concepts leads to the conclusion that by merely observing Lorenz’ butterfly, we disturb it and irretrievably alter the future.

In the real world the effect of a butterfly wing flap is as insignificant to weather and climate, as quantum wave function probability is to navigating to the moon.

Chaos becomes an apology, an excuse to throw up ones hands and declare the task impossible. The task of understanding weather and climate is not impossible. It is just very difficult.

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