North America Encounters the East Pacific Rise

The Yellowstone plume investigation keeps broadening. In the image below the heavy black line is the Pacific/Farallon ocean spreading ridge at ~30 million years ago when it first encountered North America. The current position of North America is outlined in blue. The path of the North American Continent as defined by the stable corners of the State of Colorado are shown in 10 million year increments by colored arrows on the right. Here the Farallon plate is reconstructed to the east of the ridge in the same colors as to the west.. The Farallon Islands are not on the Farallon Plate.. They are actually the granitic north end of the Salinian/Mojave batholith, sheared off and currently moving north west of the San Andreas Fault, which was just starting 30 Mya. The stripes in the ocean floor representing 5 My increments are based on magnetism reversing with the earth’s magnetic field as the ocean floor lava cooled. These “isochrons” are symmetrical on opposite sides of the ocean spreading ridges all over the planet. Here the isochrons are “restored” by copying and pasting their sisters on the opposite side of the ridge. Copying and pasting works because fracture zone offsets are conserved across ocean spreading ridges. They offset the same way on both sides of the ridge.

This exercise shows some important features. About 80 Mya North America was moving NW, but spun and changed direction about 90 degrees to the SW. This change aimed the continent almost directly at the Mendocino Fracture Zone, a huge offset in the isochrons that can be traced for 150 My across the Pacific Ocean floor. This change in direction marked the end of the Andes style arc volcanism that produced the various granitic batholiths like the Sierra and Baja and a transition to more “flat slab” subduction that caused the Absaroka volcanics at Yellowstone further inland and generally the Laramide uplift of the Rocky Mountains. The more direct opposition in direction of the Farallon and North American plates was likely a factor along with the increasing proximity of the rise producing warmer and more buoyant ocean floor. Laramide time was pretty much over at 30 Ma and this snapshot and the San Andreas phase that would move the Mendocino Fracture north to its present location off Mendocino had begun.

It can be seen that the copied and pasted restored isochrons overlap considerably south of the Mendocino Fracture Zone, likely indicating faster spreading than to the north of it. If they had been split and nested correctly the “Mendocino Projection” would be even greater. The furthest restored isochron was 60 Mya. But seismic tomography shows nothing approaching a coherent slab. Even the best tomographic images through the Cascadia subduction zone today and corroborated by independent seismic loci along the Benioff zone show a slab that is broken. The section line can be seen above the section running through the flatter southern part of the zone from the coast to Utah.

Further south the tomographic sections devolve into jumbled blue blobs. Below are various model interpretations of a section between Southern California and Iowa.

This is the realm of the San Andreas Fault which is inland of the coast ranges here, about a quarter if the way across California in the white ticks. In many of the models slab detachment allowing the mantle to upwell appears to mean letting the shallow melt from the former East Pacific Rise upwell.

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CERES

The CERES program is run for NASA by Norman Loeb. CERES stands for Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System. Scanning radiometers on the satellites have measured the earth’s energy flux since the millenium and the results run counter to even the NASA narrative.

The graphic below is annotated from Loeb (2021)

It can be seen that over the twenty year period ending in 2002, the increase in Absorbed Solar Radiation (ASR) caused about 3x more warming than CO2 and all other trace GHGs combined as “Other.”

CO2 does not directly affect clouds. Warming does, but we can see above that recent warming has been predominantly solar. The reason is a reduction in cloud cover that is not understood. Below from Dubal and Vahrenholt (2021)

If all this were not astonishing enough, another paper Lei et al (2021) showed that the increase in solar respiration from this predominantly solar warming produced more CO2 over this period than human combustion.

Using the factors established by Loeb and the supportable assumption that the warming from CO2 and from the other trace GHGs (combined in Loeb) is roughly equal, we can use simple apportionment to derive the relative contributions to warming over the period.

It should be noted that this twenty year period had the highest atmospheric CO2 concentrations in millions of years. Absorption and emission of radiation happen at the speed of light. If CO2 is not controlling warming now, what reason do we have for believing it ever did?

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The Newberry Trend

Most people have heard of the Yellowstone hotspot, an idea that has been around for half a century. Supporting this concept is a line of volcanism beginning in northern Nevada about 16.5 million years ago and getting more recent as it extends up the eastern Snake River Plain to Yellowstone, which last erupted about 700 thousand years ago. This path generally aligns with the motion of North America, which has been on a nearly straight path for about 80 million years.

Far less well known is that there is a near mirror image track apparently beginning a bit further north and growing more recent in the opposite direction toward the Newberry Volcano near Bend, Oregon. Newberry last erupted about 1300 years ago and is considered a volcanic hazard. One can find many maps of the Yellowstone trend but none of the Newberry trend despite widespread acknowledgement in the literature, so I made one

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Clive on Cycles of Ice

Excellent discussion

Ice Age insights | Clive Best

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A River Runner’s Guide to Grand Canyon Geology P. 48

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A River Runner’s Guide to Grand Canyon Geology p. 49

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CERES and the Greenhouse Effect.

In 2017 we became interested in the CERES data, in particular the measured trend of increasing longwave radiation to space. Nobody seemed to register the significance of this, so in 2018 we downloaded the data and produced this graphic:

It showed very clearly that contrary to the greenhouse effect narrative that current warming is caused by increased absorption of long wave (LW) radiation to space by human CO2, that this radiation to space was actually increasing. It further showed that net radiation to space, a value calculated by subtracting the sum of SW and LW outgoing  from incoming solar radiation (hence the inverted axis), was controlled by a marked decrease in solar SW radiation being reflected back to space. In other words, it showed that our planet was warmed not by human CO2, but by a decrease in solar SW radiation reflected to space and therefore absorbed by the surface and atmosphere. We presented this argument continuously in social media and blogs, including to such luminaries as Gavin Schmidt, now director of NASA GISS. They could never refute the data, but chose to ignore it, especially since the Trunkmonkey Research Institute has little standing in those circles. In 2020, before the CERES data format was changed, we updated the graphic to show that the trends had continued.

Comes now a fully peer reviewed paper supporting our argument.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/10/1297

They comment: “the root cause for the positive TOA net flux and, hence, for a further accumulation of energy during the last two decades was a declining outgoing shortwave flux and not a retained LW flux.”

The authors have taken advantage surface fluxes, new to the CERES data, to directly measure the greenhouse effect. They do this by subtracting top of atmosphere upward LW flux from the surface upward LW flux in clear sky conditions. They find an attenuation of about 130W/m2 (33%) under clear skies from all the atmosphere except the liquid water and ice from clouds. Under cloudy skies, however, they find their correlations with CO2 and water vapor break down entirely, and now complicated by the absorption liquid water and ice in the clouds, a much reduced attenuation of 33W/m2 (12.6%). They comment:

“the rise of the greenhouse gas concentration from 2001 to 2020 had a measur‐
able effect on the LW flux in the “Clear Sky”, covering about 1/3rd of the Earth surface. In 
the cloudy part, about 2/3rd, this effect was much smaller, if significant at all.”

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Steve Rayner in Policy Making in a Post-Truth World

The problem is not that charlatans have duped the public with pseudoscience and misinformation but rather that the expert class and the institutions in which they are embedded has failed to attend to the panoply of public values that are unavoidably implicated in the construction of policy-relevant science. The solution, they argue, is not more research, better science communication, or louder condemnations of science denial. Instead, it is greater cognitive pluralism — both in how we define problems and how we shape solutions — so that both are better able to speak to a broader range of normative postures toward risk.

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Corona with Lyme

A seasonal second wave of SARS-2 infections has spread around the Northern Hemisphere since the last post. Generally deaths are far fewer, both because many of the most vulnerable have been exposed and because a younger and healthier group is getting it now.
We digitized the available graphs of deaths for the 1918-19 pandemic. these were available for several US cities and for England.


The three Eastern Seaboard Cities of Boston, D.C., and Baltimore are pretty similar with DC having more of a preamble in July and Baltimore getting off easier on the second wave. San Francisco was more like the Eastern Seaboard but shifted. It had an easier first wave and a rougher second. Augusta had two more equal waves, with the second worse than the first. England got off easy in both waves and its first wave was opposite phase. There were substantial regional variations in phase and severity.

There are considerable phase and severity variations in the current pandemic around the US as well. What is really striking is how we have dragged the current pandemic out so much longer than prior ones.

Data for 1918 uses SF as a proxy, and requires a 50x separate scale. December data  for Covid is incomplete and will increase a bit. If we did actually flatten the Covid death curve with our interventions, the unflattened curve would have been impressively steep. I suspect we just delayed the waves.

A joke last winter was that if Covid lasted until summer, we could have corona with Lyme (disease). It did.

 

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Fuel Moisture and the Dragon’s Breath

Fuel moisture content equilibrates with atmospheric humidity on a scale of hours to weeks depending whether it is dead or alive and how thick it is. There is widespread superstition that drier fuels from climate change can be blamed for the rash of fires recently. Here we explore the relationship between atmospheric temperature and humidity to show that temperatures have not increased enough to reduce fuel moisture more than 3%.

The United States Forest Service has been studying fires for a long time. A graphic from USFS research paper INT-359 below shows the relationship between atmospheric temperature and humidity in an Idaho forest.

It can be seen that the temperature changes about 25 degrees F and humidity changes about 25%. Santa Rosa, CA has a similar diurnal range. We can generalize that the relationship is symmetrical and inversely related at 1:1 degrees F to %humidity.

Santa Rosa and nearby Windsor have lost houses each of the last three years. How much has Santa Rosa’s climate changed? Below is a graphic from Jim Steele showing average high temperatures for Santa Rosa.

It can be seen that average maximum temperatures in Santa Rosa have declined since the 1930’s like most of California and the American West. Maximum temperatures control fuel moisture low points. Atmospheric humidity and fuel moisture must have increased from the 30’s, although they have been decreasing since 1980.

The average temperature of the entire state of California is a fatuous metric for fires, but even if we could come to believe the average somehow controls the many areas like Santa Rosa where temperature has decreased, the increase of 2.5 degrees F from 1930 would only yield a 2.5% decrease in fuel moisture. The dragon’s breath needs more than that.

Furthermore, NASA has come out with a global fire area assessment.

Seems the dragon just likes California.

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