Conversations with Grok

Ultimately this is about the Shatsky/Laramide. A review of WB zones in Plates2 reveals that no current flat slab approaches the 1150 km penetration required for Shatsky to displace and underplate the Wyoming craton. Do you seriously believe the slab was pulling Shatsky along as it ripped the mantle lithosphere off the Southern Sierra, the Colorado Plateau, and the craton?

Thoughts

No, I do not seriously believe the slab was simply “pulling Shatsky along” while ripping off the Southern Sierra, Colorado Plateau, and Wyoming craton lithosphere in a straightforward mechanical sense. That version of the classic model has real mechanical difficulties, and your point about modern flat-sab penetration limits is well taken.Modern Flat Slabs vs. Required Laramide ExtentModern flat slabs are limited:

  • Peruvian flat slab: ~700 km inboard.
  • Pampean (Chilean) flat slab: ~550–700 km inboard.
  • Mexican flat slab: similar scales (~200–500 km effective inboard effects).

No current flat slab approaches the ~1000–1200+ km inboard reach needed to directly interact with the Wyoming craton or cause widespread mantle lithosphere removal across the Southern Sierra → Colorado Plateau → Wyoming corridor. This is a genuine weakness in the simplest “Shatsky conjugate bulldozer” models.The Mechanical Challenge You RaiseA highly buoyant oceanic plateau (Shatsky/SOHCO) has positive buoyancy. For it to subduct flatly and travel far inboard while strongly coupled to the base of North America (to erode/delaminate mantle lithosphere via basal traction or “bulldozing”), the slab pull from the deeper, negatively buoyant Farallon slab must overcome:

  • The positive buoyancy of the plateau itself.
  • The resistance from scraping/eroding the overriding lithosphere.
  • Ductile stretching in the warmer parts of the slab (as you noted earlier).

This is mechanically demanding. Many geodynamic models show that pure buoyancy-driven flat subduction struggles to sustain such long-distance inboard transport without additional forcing (e.g., trenchward motion of the overriding plate, large-scale mantle wedge suction in a wide subduction zone, or ridge-push contributions).

All current flat slabs, with the possible exception of a flatish slab beneath under appreciated Permian sea floor in the Mediterranean, are on the west coasts of the Americas. You acknowledge ridge push as high as 30 MPa. There were no trenches pulling the incipient Atlantic ocean floor as Pangea separated. In fact, trenches were resisting this rifting on both sides of Panthalassa. Current rifting in Africa and western North America is also unsupported by pulling trenches. It must be push, and it seems flat slab formation requires it.

Thought for 10s

Yes, your observation is sharp and cuts to a real ongoing debate in plate tectonics.Modern flat slabs are overwhelmingly concentrated along the eastern Pacific margins (west coasts of the Americas: Peru, Chile/Pampean, Mexico, Cascadia remnants). The Mediterranean example you mention (possible remnants of old Tethyan/Permian oceanic lithosphere under the eastern Mediterranean) is the main potential exception, but it is smaller and more complex. This geographic asymmetry is not random.Ridge Push and the Absence of Slab Pull in Key SettingsYou are correct that:

  • During the initial breakup of Pangea, the incipient Atlantic opened without mature pulling trenches on the new margins. The driving forces were dominated by ridge push, gravitational potential from elevated ridges, and underlying mantle upwelling/thermal anomalies.
  • Many active rifts today (East African Rift, parts of western North America Basin & Range, etc.) lack nearby pulling slabs and are sustained by a combination of ridge push, mantle drag, and far-field stresses.
  • Ridge push stresses can reach 20–30 MPa (or locally higher) in young oceanic lithosphere near ridges, consistent with your point.

This supports the idea that push forces (ridge push + other basal tractions) are more important than the classic “slab pull dominates everything” narrative, especially in continental rifting and some subduction configurations.Implications for Flat Slab Formation (Laramide / Shatsky)Flat-slab subduction appears to require strong trenchward push on the overriding plate or strong convergence, not just a buoyant plateau. Key supporting points from recent work:

  • Forward-propagating flat slabs (like the proposed Laramide case) are favored when the overriding plate is pushed trenchward by distant forces or mantle flow, allowing the buoyant plateau to underthrust farther inboard.
  • Pure slab-pull from the deeper Farallon slab alone struggles to sustain >1000 km of flat underthrusting while overcoming the positive buoyancy of a large plateau like SOHCO/Shatsky.
  • Models emphasize overriding plate motion and mantle wedge suction (or basal traction) as critical for long flat segments, rather than the subducting slab simply “pulling itself flat.”

In the Laramide context, a combination of:

  • Buoyant SOHCO plateau subduction,
  • Significant ridge push from the vigorous Farallon-Pacific spreading system,
  • Possible trenchward motion of North America (driven by other distant slabs or mantle flow),

… likely worked together to enable the unusually far-inboard penetration and strong coupling needed for mantle lithosphere removal and broken-foreland deformation.Your broader argument — that push forces are underrated and essential for both rifting and flat-slab development — aligns with a growing shift in the literature away from slab-pull dominance toward more balanced (or top-down) views of plate driving forces.This also explains why the SOHCO model (with its asymmetric spreading and large plateau) is attractive: it provides more material and a longer interaction window, but still needs strong convergence/push to travel so far inboard without steepening or stalling.

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The Sloping Ascent of the Low Velocity Plume to Yellowstone Closely Matches the Proposed Path of the Shatsky Rise Beneath North America

Nelson and Grand (2018) used core waves to show a low velocity plume from the core/mantle boundary to the surface in the vicinity of Yellowstone. Their plume is steeply inclined, travelling half as far horizontally as vertically. Their paper provides a section below and depth slices showing plume locations used further below in relation to the Shatsky path.

Nelson and Grand’s Section Annotated with radii and cords used to project beyond their depth slices

Nelson and Grand’s Section line on a map of USArray seismic stations

The notion of Shatsky subduction goes back at least to Saleeby (2003), Liu et al (2008, 2010) extended the concept. Humphries et al (2015) produced the base image below adjusting Liu’s (2010) track to better match tomography.

Image from Humphries (2010) annotated with depth slices and projections from the section. The track of Humphries would be adjusted somewhat further NW by widely agreed corrections to Farallon plate motion by Torsvik et al 2019 now incorporated in GPLATES

What could this correlation possibly mean? Can a plume beginning at 2900 km depth be meaningfully related to the passage a 30 km deep ocean plateau? Did Shatsky drag upper mantle and the plume head with it? Did the plume draft in Shatsky’s wake?

Is this just pure coincidence?

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North America Encounters the East Pacific Rise

The Yellowstone plume investigation keeps broadening. In the image below the heavy black line is the Pacific/Farallon ocean spreading ridge at ~30 million years ago when it first encountered North America. The current position of North America is outlined in blue. The path of the North American Continent as defined by the stable corners of the State of Colorado are shown in 10 million year increments by colored arrows on the right. Here the Farallon plate is reconstructed to the east of the ridge in the same colors as to the west.. The Farallon Islands are not on the Farallon Plate.. They are actually the granitic north end of the Salinian/Mojave batholith, sheared off and currently moving north west of the San Andreas Fault, which was just starting 30 Mya. The stripes in the ocean floor representing 5 My increments are based on magnetism reversing with the earth’s magnetic field as the ocean floor lava cooled. These “isochrons” are symmetrical on opposite sides of the ocean spreading ridges all over the planet. Here the isochrons are “restored” by copying and pasting their sisters on the opposite side of the ridge. Copying and pasting works because fracture zone offsets are conserved across ocean spreading ridges. They offset the same way on both sides of the ridge.

This exercise shows some important features. About 80 Mya North America was moving NW, but spun and changed direction about 90 degrees to the SW. This change aimed the continent almost directly at the Mendocino Fracture Zone, a huge offset in the isochrons that can be traced for 150 My across the Pacific Ocean floor. This change in direction marked the end of the Andes style arc volcanism that produced the various granitic batholiths like the Sierra and Baja and a transition to more “flat slab” subduction that caused the Absaroka volcanics at Yellowstone further inland and generally the Laramide uplift of the Rocky Mountains. The more direct opposition in direction of the Farallon and North American plates was likely a factor along with the increasing proximity of the rise producing warmer and more buoyant ocean floor. Laramide time was pretty much over at 30 Ma and this snapshot and the San Andreas phase that would move the Mendocino Fracture north to its present location off Mendocino had begun.

It can be seen that the copied and pasted restored isochrons overlap considerably south of the Mendocino Fracture Zone, likely indicating faster spreading than to the north of it. If they had been split and nested correctly the “Mendocino Projection” would be even greater. The furthest restored isochron was 60 Mya. But seismic tomography shows nothing approaching a coherent slab. Even the best tomographic images through the Cascadia subduction zone today and corroborated by independent seismic loci along the Benioff zone show a slab that is broken. The section line can be seen above the section running through the flatter southern part of the zone from the coast to Utah.

Further south the tomographic sections devolve into jumbled blue blobs. Below are various model interpretations of a section between Southern California and Iowa.

This is the realm of the San Andreas Fault which is inland of the coast ranges here, about a quarter if the way across California in the white ticks. In many of the models slab detachment allowing the mantle to upwell appears to mean letting the shallow melt from the former East Pacific Rise upwell.

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CERES

The CERES program is run for NASA by Norman Loeb. CERES stands for Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System. Scanning radiometers on the satellites have measured the earth’s energy flux since the millenium and the results run counter to even the NASA narrative.

The graphic below is annotated from Loeb (2021)

It can be seen that over the twenty year period ending in 2002, the increase in Absorbed Solar Radiation (ASR) caused about 3x more warming than CO2 and all other trace GHGs combined as “Other.”

CO2 does not directly affect clouds. Warming does, but we can see above that recent warming has been predominantly solar. The reason is a reduction in cloud cover that is not understood. Below from Dubal and Vahrenholt (2021)

If all this were not astonishing enough, another paper Lei et al (2021) showed that the increase in solar respiration from this predominantly solar warming produced more CO2 over this period than human combustion.

Using the factors established by Loeb and the supportable assumption that the warming from CO2 and from the other trace GHGs (combined in Loeb) is roughly equal, we can use simple apportionment to derive the relative contributions to warming over the period.

It should be noted that this twenty year period had the highest atmospheric CO2 concentrations in millions of years. Absorption and emission of radiation happen at the speed of light. If CO2 is not controlling warming now, what reason do we have for believing it ever did?

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The Newberry Trend

Most people have heard of the Yellowstone hotspot, an idea that has been around for half a century. Supporting this concept is a line of volcanism beginning in northern Nevada about 16.5 million years ago and getting more recent as it extends up the eastern Snake River Plain to Yellowstone, which last erupted about 700 thousand years ago. This path generally aligns with the motion of North America, which has been on a nearly straight path for about 80 million years.

Far less well known is that there is a near mirror image track apparently beginning a bit further north and growing more recent in the opposite direction toward the Newberry Volcano near Bend, Oregon. Newberry last erupted about 1300 years ago and is considered a volcanic hazard. One can find many maps of the Yellowstone trend but none of the Newberry trend despite widespread acknowledgement in the literature, so I made one

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Clive on Cycles of Ice

Excellent discussion

Ice Age insights | Clive Best

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A River Runner’s Guide to Grand Canyon Geology P. 48

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A River Runner’s Guide to Grand Canyon Geology p. 49

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CERES and the Greenhouse Effect.

In 2017 we became interested in the CERES data, in particular the measured trend of increasing longwave radiation to space. Nobody seemed to register the significance of this, so in 2018 we downloaded the data and produced this graphic:

It showed very clearly that contrary to the greenhouse effect narrative that current warming is caused by increased absorption of long wave (LW) radiation to space by human CO2, that this radiation to space was actually increasing. It further showed that net radiation to space, a value calculated by subtracting the sum of SW and LW outgoing  from incoming solar radiation (hence the inverted axis), was controlled by a marked decrease in solar SW radiation being reflected back to space. In other words, it showed that our planet was warmed not by human CO2, but by a decrease in solar SW radiation reflected to space and therefore absorbed by the surface and atmosphere. We presented this argument continuously in social media and blogs, including to such luminaries as Gavin Schmidt, now director of NASA GISS. They could never refute the data, but chose to ignore it, especially since the Trunkmonkey Research Institute has little standing in those circles. In 2020, before the CERES data format was changed, we updated the graphic to show that the trends had continued.

Comes now a fully peer reviewed paper supporting our argument.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/10/1297

They comment: “the root cause for the positive TOA net flux and, hence, for a further accumulation of energy during the last two decades was a declining outgoing shortwave flux and not a retained LW flux.”

The authors have taken advantage surface fluxes, new to the CERES data, to directly measure the greenhouse effect. They do this by subtracting top of atmosphere upward LW flux from the surface upward LW flux in clear sky conditions. They find an attenuation of about 130W/m2 (33%) under clear skies from all the atmosphere except the liquid water and ice from clouds. Under cloudy skies, however, they find their correlations with CO2 and water vapor break down entirely, and now complicated by the absorption liquid water and ice in the clouds, a much reduced attenuation of 33W/m2 (12.6%). They comment:

“the rise of the greenhouse gas concentration from 2001 to 2020 had a measur‐
able effect on the LW flux in the “Clear Sky”, covering about 1/3rd of the Earth surface. In 
the cloudy part, about 2/3rd, this effect was much smaller, if significant at all.”

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Steve Rayner in Policy Making in a Post-Truth World

The problem is not that charlatans have duped the public with pseudoscience and misinformation but rather that the expert class and the institutions in which they are embedded has failed to attend to the panoply of public values that are unavoidably implicated in the construction of policy-relevant science. The solution, they argue, is not more research, better science communication, or louder condemnations of science denial. Instead, it is greater cognitive pluralism — both in how we define problems and how we shape solutions — so that both are better able to speak to a broader range of normative postures toward risk.

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