Corona with Lyme


A seasonal second wave of SARS-2 infections has spread around the Northern Hemisphere since the last post. Generally deaths are far fewer, both because many of the most vulnerable have been exposed and because a younger and healthier group is getting it now.
We digitized the available graphs of deaths for the 1918-19 pandemic. these were available for several US cities and for England.


The three Eastern Seaboard Cities of Boston, D.C., and Baltimore are pretty similar with DC having more of a preamble in July and Baltimore getting off easier on the second wave. San Francisco was more like the Eastern Seaboard but shifted. It had an easier first wave and a rougher second. Augusta had two more equal waves, with the second worse than the first. England got off easy in both waves and its first wave was opposite phase. There were substantial regional variations in phase and severity.

There are considerable phase and severity variations in the current pandemic around the US as well. What is really striking is how we have dragged the current pandemic out so much longer than prior ones.

Data for 1918 uses SF as a proxy, and requires a 50x separate scale. December data  for Covid is incomplete and will increase a bit. If we did actually flatten the Covid death curve with our interventions, the unflattened curve would have been impressively steep. I suspect we just delayed the waves.

A joke last winter was that if Covid lasted until summer, we could have corona with Lyme (disease). It did.

 

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