Author Archives: gymnosperm

Fuel Moisture and the Dragon’s Breath

Fuel moisture content equilibrates with atmospheric humidity on a scale of hours to weeks depending whether it is dead or alive and how thick it is. There is widespread superstition that drier fuels from climate change can be blamed for … Continue reading

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Will a Vaccine Work?

Last year’s seasonal flu vaccine was judged 45% effective. This is typical effectiveness for a seasonal flu vaccine after half a century of practice. Now let’s say 50% of the people will take the vaccine in line with recent studies. … Continue reading

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Seasonal Darwinism

The time scale of viral evolution is hours. The infectious vectors called virions can each produce thousands of copies of themselves from a single infected cell. Within hours, natural selection will determine which virions will successfully infect another cell/organ/individual; and … Continue reading

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Fun With Cut and Paste

Perusing the state new case curves on https://rt.live/ some patterns become apparent. Some states with early exposure are on a clear downward trend. Some southern states with later exposure are on an upward trend, California being an exception by early … Continue reading

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Trouble with Model

We had been trying to do this ourselves but found this fun model: https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html   We can attest that the model parameters agree with our own incomplete efforts. It has lots of fun stuff to play with, and you can … Continue reading

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The Possible Origins of 2019-nCoV Coronavirus

The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus Botao Xiao1,2* and Lei Xiao3 1 Joint International Research Laboratory of Synthetic Biology and Medicine, School of Biology and Biological Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China 2 School of Physics, Huazhong … Continue reading

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Pandemic Persistence

We labor under a serious misconception that Corona can be eliminated, like polio. The history of pandemics tells us otherwise. The H2N2 virus likely caused the pandemic of 1890. It became the seasonal flu until it was supplanted by H3N2 … Continue reading

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Pandemic Seasonality

We do not yet understand seasonality in viruses. There are ideas about UV from sunlight zapping them. There are ideas about elevated vitamin D in humans during the warm season. There are ideas that warm weather just dries them out, … Continue reading

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The Shapes of Pandemic Curves

Getting monthly data for even 1957 and 1968 is tough sledding. We finally found in the CDC Vital Statistics Archives monthly data for these pandemics. Monthly data for surrounding years is available for 1968, but only 1957 and 58 for … Continue reading

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Unified Geological Map of the Grand Canyon

We were puzzled about the Supergroup so we bought a pdf map from the Geological Society of America that covered the eastern part. We found that a forest of inconsequential faults, strikes and dips, and other notations was distracting us … Continue reading

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