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Author Archives: gymnosperm
Steve Rayner in Policy Making in a Post-Truth World
The problem is not that charlatans have duped the public with pseudoscience and misinformation but rather that the expert class and the institutions in which they are embedded has failed to attend to the panoply of public values that are … Continue reading
Posted in Climate
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Corona with Lyme
A seasonal second wave of SARS-2 infections has spread around the Northern Hemisphere since the last post. Generally deaths are far fewer, both because many of the most vulnerable have been exposed and because a younger and healthier group is … Continue reading
Posted in SARS 2
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Fuel Moisture and the Dragon’s Breath
Fuel moisture content equilibrates with atmospheric humidity on a scale of hours to weeks depending whether it is dead or alive and how thick it is. There is widespread superstition that drier fuels from climate change can be blamed for … Continue reading
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Will a Vaccine Work?
Last year’s seasonal flu vaccine was judged 45% effective. This is typical effectiveness for a seasonal flu vaccine after half a century of practice. Now let’s say 50% of the people will take the vaccine in line with recent studies. … Continue reading
Posted in SARS 2
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Seasonal Darwinism
The time scale of viral evolution is hours. The infectious vectors called virions can each produce thousands of copies of themselves from a single infected cell. Within hours, natural selection will determine which virions will successfully infect another cell/organ/individual; and … Continue reading
Posted in SARS 2
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Fun With Cut and Paste
Perusing the state new case curves on https://rt.live/ some patterns become apparent. Some states with early exposure are on a clear downward trend. Some southern states with later exposure are on an upward trend, California being an exception by early … Continue reading
Posted in SARS 2
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Trouble with Model
We had been trying to do this ourselves but found this fun model: https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html We can attest that the model parameters agree with our own incomplete efforts. It has lots of fun stuff to play with, and you can … Continue reading
Posted in SARS 2
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The Possible Origins of 2019-nCoV Coronavirus
The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus Botao Xiao1,2* and Lei Xiao3 1 Joint International Research Laboratory of Synthetic Biology and Medicine, School of Biology and Biological Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China 2 School of Physics, Huazhong … Continue reading
Posted in SARS 2
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Pandemic Persistence
We labor under a serious misconception that Corona can be eliminated, like polio. The history of pandemics tells us otherwise. The H2N2 virus likely caused the pandemic of 1890. It became the seasonal flu until it was supplanted by H3N2 … Continue reading
Posted in Pandemic
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Pandemic Seasonality
We do not yet understand seasonality in viruses. There are ideas about UV from sunlight zapping them. There are ideas about elevated vitamin D in humans during the warm season. There are ideas that warm weather just dries them out, … Continue reading
Posted in Pandemic
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