Perusing the state new case curves on https://rt.live/ some patterns become apparent.
Some states with early exposure are on a clear downward trend.
Some southern states with later exposure are on an upward trend, California being an exception by early exposure.
Some early starting midwestern states seem over the hump, DC being eastern with similar shape.
Some later starting states also seem over the hump.
Some northerly late starting states are climbing.
Some states are cruising.
Some show a second wave, and Wyoming which never lifted off.
- There is no consistent relationship between lifting house arrest and new cases.
- There is no indication that seasonality is slowing the spread.
- Below Rt=1 (faintly visible in background) Rt can rise and new cases can still fall. The inverse is also true.
- Washington State has managed a modest decline with Rt>1.
- Utah has had steady Rt>1 for the entire period. A month elapesd before there was appreciable increase in cases, and it experienced a striking rise without any increase in Rt.
The more you know, the more you know you don’t know Jack.