Explaining Milankovitch to a Barmaid.

I had been drinking. And thinking, and remembering Einstein once said no scientific theory was any good unless you could explain it to a barmaid. Well, Albert, good luck with special relativity on a napkin, but Milankovitch?

A barmaid brought me another glass and it was slow and she was bored. “What do you know about Milankovitch?” I queried.

“Mawho?”

“The guy who proposed that the earth’s wobble caused the ice ages,” I suggested.

“Burrr.” She looked around as to see if someone had left a door open, but it was really, really slow.

“Ok, so tell me about this Milanko guy,” she grudgingly offered.

I drew eccentricity on my napkin.

 

“The earth’s orbit around the sun changes from this to that every hundred thousand years.”

“Why?”

“The gravitational attraction of Uranus…” She shot me a piercingly suspicious look. “And Jupiter and Saturn,” I quickly added.

“Reelee, do you ever have any fun?”

“Of course,” I parried, “but this is really important and Einstein said if it was any good I should be able to explain it to you.”

“Einstein?”

I drew the variation in obliquity.

 

“Why is the earth tipped?”

“Because it rotates around the sun leaning like the guys leaving here at closing time. And it wobbles like them too.”

“Ahguuh, you’re crazy.”

“No, 2 ½ degrees is like from San Francisco to Mendocino, or the straight up summer sun moving from Havana to Miami.”

“You’re crazy and you’re a nerd!”

“Or you could think of it as summer arriving 19 days early and leaving 19 days later.”

Now I was faced with explaining precession. Napkin would be no help. It’s not like I was going to say, “The earth’s spin has phase relative to its orbit around the sun so that sometimes winter and other times summer is closest to the sun.”

The clock read 3:42 PM and the first regular walked in. The barmaid was visibly relieved. I knew that I had failed to explain it and those Milankovitch theories were no good.

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An exceptional walk across the Golden Gate Bridge

An exceptional walk required exceptional procedures. Picture ID, affidavit signed and cosigned, hard hats issued.

Ancient key inserted, old bolts grudgingly lifted, a tiny passageway to the innards of the south tower.

Three human sardines at a time, an elevator so tiny rivets passed an inch from your nose. A dark ladder fifteen feet to a landing and this final few rungs out the portal to the top.

Relief! No exposed pitches in the howling wind. You could have a luncheon up here.

Elation, nerves settled, slightly bummed to be forbidden the last exposed pitch up the ladder to the light even though it was pretty much what my imagination had feared.

An hour, lots of ships

Retrospective.

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Skepticism

You know what skepticism is? Skepticism is doing yoga in your socks because it is cold and you didn’t start the fire soon enough. You know darned well it will be fine, you’ve even done it before when it was cold but it is against the rules.

Skepticism is driving without a seatbelt because it’s liberating and you are feeling it. You’re on it and you know in your bones you can steer around anything right now. You can remember when cars didn’t even have friggin’ seatbelts.

It’s leaving your shirt tail out or your shoelace untied for a bit just to see what happens. And because it’s not cool.

It’s farting in church and trying to look enraptured.

Skepticism is really the opposite of religion.

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Please Don’t Feed the Feedbacks

Feedback is central to the alarmist narrative on several levels. Negative feedback seven times more powerful for CO2 loss (from pre-industrial level, it is non-linear) than positive feedback for an equal gain is critical for the hypothesis that Milankovitch cycles explain why without exception temperature moves before CO2 in the ice cores. This may be why exceptionally powerful negative feedback parameters are built into the models.

Three hundred ninety-two point seven eight sounds like a lot of CO2 until you get to the parts per million, so let’s scale it back to something more humanly comprehensible: 39.28 per hundred thousand, 3.9 per ten thousand. Now we are getting to the scale of small towns and impressive gatherings.

Imagine ten thousand people marching up the Capital Mall. Imagine these to be all the atoms and molecules in the atmosphere. Four of them would be CO2. Ok, let’s round it up to 5 to account for the other “well mixed non-condensing” greenhouse gasses. It’s going to take some serious feedback for these five souls to control that crowd.

They do have disproportionate feedback. Water, the condensing and most powerful greenhouse gas is also found as a liquid and a solid in the atmosphere, but it is concentrated in the lower atmosphere. By mixing to high altitude CO2 is able to become a legitimate greenhouse agent, to the best of our follow the photon understanding of the greenhouse effect.

But there are only five of them in that crowd.

I was astonished so few reacted when Andrew Lacis posted the following on the NASA website in October 2010:

CO2 Removed

He did a model run with the non-condensing gasses entirely removed from a pre-industrial (only four at the march) level. The model responded with a global temperature drop of 4.6C the first year!

What an insult! Our collective human efforts since the industrial revolution digging carbon from the ground as well as prior and ongoing deforestation for fuel have been able to muster less than a 1 degree rise in global temperature according to the model. And this computer thinks it can take four guys out of a ten thousand man march and drop temperature that fast? Somebody, kick that thing!

Don’t believe anyone who says they know what global mean average temperature was during the glacial maxima. We really don’t know what it is today. But 4.6 degrees cooling is in the range of a glacial maximum. And it gets worse fast. In a decade the model would have more than 20 degrees cooling.

Try to imagine cooling at this rate in pre-industrial London. Within hours people would be running for shelter and lighting coal in their fireplaces. Within a month they would be ice skating on the Thames, even if it happened to be summer.

I think those feedbacks are way overfed.

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Reblogg

I’d actually written this as a reply on Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog but there seemed some sort of enfarction and the beauty of having your own is I can just post it here…

“And I still think a photon emitted by a cool object can be absorbed by a warmer object but the greater flux in the opposite direction means that the warm object heats the cool object anyway. But I wasn’t going to go there.”

Luv it. We Jacks of all trades gotta stick together.When you don’t understand something, all you have is statistics.

I mean really, you think a photon really CARES? Or you think the higher Pauling vibrational state of the warmer body actually repels the photon?

Well, I don’t know either, but this is the state of our understanding of the greenhouse effect in our atmosphere.

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Too Much on my Plate

I’ve been getting annoyed with the grade school conception of “plate” tectonics where everyone is identifying plates and their relative motions and saying stuff like the Japan Earthquake of 2011 was caused by the Pacific Plate sliding under Japan. It is as if the plates had their own means of locomotion and it ignores the fundamental difference between oceanic and continental “plates”.

The plates are just so much china, if you can indulge me here, and what is really interesting is the spreading centers that push ocean floor and the subduction zones or trenches that may actually draw ocean floor down down.

I recently was sent thus utube of the Japan Earthquakes of 2011.

The earthquake pattern before the major event was what one might expect from a plate sliding under another plate: widely dispersed random events. Beginning with the major event virtually all activity was focused where the Japan Trench meets the Ryukyu Trench and all other activity on both trenches virtually ceased.

Unhappily for Japan, it sits astride this juncture.

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Deeper Doo Doo for Dendrochronology

Indices of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are in close agreement for the period of the last seventy years. The NASA Multivariate Index and the Mantua Index only go back a hundred or so and they correlate very closely. These shorter indices correlate pretty well with the longer Shen Index based on rainfall records in China, which goes back to 1470. The longest index based on Limber Pine tree rings by MacDonald and Case goes back a thousand years, but differs significantly.

Long term PDO Indices Compared by https://geosciencebigpicture.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/long-term-pdo-indices-compared.jpg is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.Based on a work at geosciencebigpicture.files.wordpress.com.

That these two match so well for the last hundred years after squabbling for the prior four hundred is notable. Actually there is reasonable agreement for about a three hundred year flat period with only the tree rings getting all excited now and then. The only major movements they agree on are the run up in the late 1400’s and the “hockey stick” of the instrumental era.

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What’s going on here? #…oh who’s counting

More data follies. Had to respond to a tenant complaining of poor retail sales. Took a notion to check retail sales for the area. Guess the rainfall data follies should have prepared me. But no, naive I guess, too ready to trust in essential goodness. Three hours later I still had no data unhidden by a paywall.

On one hand I can appreciate that few people these days are inclined to venture into raw data, on the other hand free information is essential to a free society. We are paying these guys! Reminds me of a Paul Simon line, “The information is unavailable to the common man.”

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Not to change the subject or anything…

But I walked into the paint store the other day carrying a can of the paint I had bought there sometime within the last decade to paint my truck and was informed that the no longer carry that kind of paint. They further mentioned that they had to pay about $30,000 to destroy their inventory of this evil paint.

I live on the northern reaches of the (San Francisco) Bay Area Air Quality Management District. Having some experience with this sort of folly I inquired if I might be able to drive a few miles north and get the paint. Sure enough, the answer was yes. The honest chap told me to do it because the old paint was an order of magnitude better than the paint he would be able to sell me.

Might have to rename this site , “What is going on here?”

Can you imagine forcing this poor guy to destroy his inventory of superior product rather than letting him sell it off or at least sell it to someone out of the district?

This is religion, a mean religion I will fight until my last breath.

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Picturesque

So if the oceanic circulation looks like this:

All Ocean view by Alexandre Van de Sande

And the resulting 2500m (deep) ocean age looks tile this:

 Then what does this mean?

Why should a PDO index that basically describes which side of the Pacific Ocean the ancient deep water is upwelling on track with or even lead global surface temperature? Why would global temperature care which side of the Pacific the cold water emerged on? And it isn’t just PDO. Everyone is gaga about El Nino and global temperature. Same problem. Why?

 El Nino’s are in some sense junior PDO’s and MJO’s are similarly mini El Ninos. My current hypothesis is that they are all part of some homeostatic global thermoregulatory mechanism. Now, how to test this?

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