A couple interesting papers

Sulfate Burial Constraints on the Phanerozoic Sulfur Cycle Halevy, et al.
Science 20 July 2012: 331-334.DOI:10.1126/science.1220224

Rapid Variability of Seawater Chemistry Over the Past 130 Million Years Wortmann, et al.
Science 20 July 2012: 334-336.DOI:10.1126/science.1220656

Sulfur has hit the radar.

The dramatic tectonic event of India colliding with Eurasia and exposing Tethyian sediments to weathering has been around a while. It has been suggested that carbonate weathering sucked so much CO2 out of the atmosphere after the uplift of the Himalayas that global temperatures have fallen ever since.

Wortman shifts the discussion to sulphate in the form of gypsum and Halevy discusses sulphate reduction to sulphide by critters to form of pyrite, producing oxygen, and subsequent weathering of pyrite, consuming oxygen.

This is all very interesting in the context of the pattern I have alluded to where sea level regressions and transgressions seem linked to subsequent extinctions and isotope excursions.

Weathering of evaporite basins is nothing new in earth history. Chemical weathering uses carbonic acid or water to produce different alkaline or haline salts from the evaporites.

Sea floor isochrons are analogous to tree rings. Note how unusually large the growth is between 30 and 60 mya.

I think all the hollywood focus on the collision of India and Eurasia misses half of the equation. India didn’t just float into Eurasia, it was pushed, maybe even hurled. Seafloor isochrons show an extraordinary acceleration in spreading along a short section of ridge bounded by massive transform faults. Volcanic production of carbon and sulfur oxides from this spreading must surely have counteracted the weathering.

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Carbon Isotope Excursions and Carbon Limitation of Primary Productivity in the Biosphere

Carbon Isotope Excursions and Carbon Limitation of Primary Productivity in the Biosphere

Gordon Lehman, Trunkmonkey, Gymnosperm; sheepherders, ignoramuses all

Abstract

The conception of natural history as an economic struggle was developed by Geerat Vermeij (1). “Supply side” interpretations of δ13C excursions in the carbonate shells of marine organisms have been forced to invoke methane hydrates, exponential increases in bacterial carbon remineralization, improbable rates of organic carbon transfer from land, and even carbon laden comets to account for a superabundance of the lighter δ12C preferred by carbonate producing organisms during negative δ13C events, and a superabundance of δ13C during positive events. We propose here a “demand side” approach to δ13C excursions supposing that primary productivity in the biosphere is carbon limited.

Introduction

While volcanism produces infinitesimal amounts of free oxygen and dissociation of water by ultraviolet light a bit more, it is widely accepted that the preponderance of the oxygen, comprising nearly 21% of the atmosphere, was produced by photosynthesis. The equation for photosynthesis is 6CO2 +6 H2O -> C6H12O6 + 6O2. Every pair of oxygen atoms in the atmosphere consumed a molecule of CO2 at its formation.
Photosynthesis has been around more than three billion years but oxygen levels in the atmosphere are thought to have remained below 1% until the banded iron formation/red bed (magnetite/hematite) transition about two billion years ago when oxygen concentration in the atmosphere may have risen to 10%. The BIF/red bed transition corresponds generally with the evolution and endosymbiotic assimilation of mitochondria, which used oxygen to first double the ATP efficiency of cellular respiration through the Krebs cycle and eventually turbocharge respiration by an order of magnitude with oxidative phosphorylation.
The formula for mitochondrial respiration is C6H12O6+ 6 O2 → 6 CO2+ 6 H2O. Being equal and opposite to photosynthesis, a sustainable economy had evolved which allowed life to proliferate for nearly two billion years and eventually colonize the land.
About 375 million years ago in the late Devonian substantial forests of tall trees covered land for the first time. We suppose that this event marks the beginning of a striking increase in O2 and depletion of CO2 that persisted until the end of the Paleozoic. We further suppose that until plants had substantially colonized land, volcanic carbon production (2) had been sufficient to balance the demand from oceanic photosynthesis and the other biological and chemical demands, but the added carbon demand from land plants exceeded the supply. Since the late Devonian carbon and oxygen in the atmosphere have been inversely correlated.
Figure 1 from Huey and Ward (6) using data from Robert Berner shows Phanerozoic O2 and CO2 levels expressed as percentage of current levels. Current levels are shown at the left and the vertical red line is the Permian-Triassic extinction.
We offer no explanation for the Permian-Triassic extinction, but suppose that reduced carbon demand and photosynthesis allowed biological respiration to predominate, depleting oxygen and restoring CO2. Late Permian strata contain anomalously high concentrations of fungal spores (7).

Figure 1 by Huey and Ward (6)

Large amounts of biological carbon are stored in the geosphere as biomass (predominantly cellulose and lignin); fulvic and humic acids and humins; as carbonate, CaCO4; as methane hydrates and as kerogens of various hydrocarbon compositions. It is estimated that the lithosphere contains 75 million gigatons of carbon as carbonate and kerogens (3). Inorganic carbon is stored as carbonic acid, H2CO3, and its alkaline chemical weathering products like evaporate basins, kaolin clays, and other weathered alkaline sedimentary rocks. All of these biological and chemical processes represent current and historic demands on the carbon supply.
While some free oxygen is consumed in chemical weathering, the vast majority of oxygen stored on carbonate and other geological carbon sinks was produced directly from water. Water vapor comprises 37% to 97% of the volume of volcanic emissions (4). It is generally accepted that the water on the planet is mineral and did not consume atmospheric free oxygen in its formation.
A small amount of free oxygen is converted to ozone (O3) by ultraviolet light, but ozone has a half-life of hours, it degrades back to free oxygen, and at .6 parts per million (5) in the atmosphere ozone is safely ignored for our purposes.
We suppose that oxygen has accumulated in the atmosphere because cellular respiration, the only significant demand on it, produces a biologically valuable end product (CO2) that is quickly recycled; and that carbon is depleted in the atmosphere because it faces many biological and chemical demands with longer cycle times. We find it significant that at .04% current CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is nearly four orders of magnitude lower than the concentration of free oxygen.

Carbon Isotope Excursions

Seasoned colleagues can remember when a university department was lucky to have a mass spectrometer. The proliferation of these instruments revolutionized science in the late twentieth century and geology benefitted as much as any field of inquiry. Measurements have been taken of the carbon isotope ratios in the carbonate shells of organisms and the ages of these organisms determined by the decay of other isotopes. Most of this work has focused on marine organisms, but is assumed that on geological timescales the ocean and atmosphere equilibrate. It was noticed that over time carbon isotope ratios were pretty constant but took some surprising excursions.

Work is mass over distance and weight is an economic cost. Natural selection has favored organisms that minimized costs, and biological processes select lighter isotopes when they are available. It has become standard practice to plot carbon isotope variation as deviation or anomaly of δ13C, the heavier isotope. Figure 2 by Jonathan Payne et al (8) shows the δ13C excursions of the late Permian and the Triassic. Lower numbers (movement to the left) in δ13C mean that less δ13C and more δ12C is incorporated in carbonate shells. Supply side interpretations of negative excursions postulate enormous influxes of δ12C to account for this shift. We suppose the shift reflects reduced competition for δ12C. It is notable that the negative excursion in the late Permian was only the beginning of a roughly six million year period in the early Triassic of even higher amplitude excursions. We interpret these swings as fluctuations in global carbon demand, with positive δ13C periods coinciding with biological recovery by colonizing (r selected) species and higher carbon demand, and negative δ13C periods coinciding with extinction and lower carbon demand. General recovery from the Permian-Triassic extinction did not begin until after δ13C had stabilized in the mid-Triassic.

Figure 2 by Jonathan Payne et al (8)

Figure 3 by Saunders and Reichow (9) shows argon isotope timing of the negative δ13C excursion in relation to the extinction horizon. We interpret the coincidence of the negative excursion and the extinction to reflect the massive reduction in photosynthesizing and carbonate producing organisms and reduced demand for carbon in general and δ12C in particular. The remaining organisms would have had more δ12C available and would have included less δ13C in their shells.
Stephen Stanley (10) has found as many as 26 Phanerozoic extinctions associated with isotopic excursions. In all of these the concentration of the heavy oxygen isotope δ18O, similarly selected against in biological processes, covaries in the carbonate shells. We suppose that the isotope excursions did not cause the extinctions, but merely reflect them.

Figure 3 by Saunders and Reichow (9)

Figure 4 by Thomas and Shackleton (11) shows the oxygen and carbon excursions during the marine extinction near the much discussed Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). Please note that the δ18O scale is inverted and the δ13C and δ18O excursions have the same sign. This time series is especially interesting because it also spans the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) extinction of the dinosaurs. One can see a modest signal at about 65 ma. We notice some similarity with the Permian-Triassic pattern where an initial excursion is followed by higher amplitude events before settling down.

Figure 4 by Thomas and Shackleton (11)

Conclusion

We conclude that attempts to understand the relationship between isotope excursions and extinctions have been hampered by a preconception, tied to current notions of carbon and warming, that the excursions must have caused the extinctions. We suppose the opposite, that isotopic excursions reflect demand that waxes and wanes with the abundance of carbon limited organisms. Wolfe-Gladrow et al (12) and Reibesell et al (13) have reported striking increases in plankton productivity when carbon supply is increased. It is widely recognized that the carbon double bond is the chemical basis of life on our planet. We find it easy to suppose that primary productivity is carbon limited.

References

(1)Vermeij, G. (2006). Nature: an economic history. Princeton University Press. Princeton University Press. Retrieved from http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=H9RFCa7rH8QC&oi=fnd&pg=PR1&dq=Nature-+an+economic+history&ots=-E_eNzhLjW&sig=5yqmcTCu2iCSRpTkN6OiJgra9v0

(2) Symonds, R.B., Rose, w.I., Bluth, G., and Gerlach, T.M., 1994, Volcanic gas studies: methods, results, and applications, in Carroll, M.R., and Holloway, J.R., eds., Volatiles in Magmas: Mineralogical Society of America Reviews in Mineralogy, v. 30, p. 1-66.

(3) Lal, Rattan (2008). “Sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in global carbon pools”. Energy and Environmental Science 1: 86–100. DOI:10.1039/b809492f.

(4) Sigurdsson, H. et al., (2000) Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, San Diego, Academic Press

(5) “Science: Ozone Basics.”. http://www.ozonelayer.noaa.gov/science/basics.htm. Retrieved 2007-01-29.

(6) Huey, R. B., & Ward, P. D. (2005, April 15). Hypoxia, global warming, and terrestrial late Permian extinctions. Science (New York, N.Y.). doi:10.1126/science.1108019

(7) H Visscher, H Brinkhuis, D L Dilcher, W C Elsik, Y Eshet, C V Looy, M R Rampino, and A Traverse (1996). “The terminal Paleozoic fungal event: Evidence of terrestrial ecosystem destabilization and collapse”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 93 (5): 2155–2158. Bibcode 1996PNAS…93.2155V. DOI:10.1073/pnas.93.5.2155. PMC 39926. PMID 11607638. //www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=39926.

(8) Payne, J. L., Lehrmann, D. J., Wei, J., Orchard, M. J., Schrag, D. P., & Knoll, A. H. (2004). Large perturbations of the carbon cycle during recovery from the end-permian extinction. Science (New York, N.Y.), 305(5683), 506-9. doi:10.1126/science.1097023

(9) Saunders, A.D and Reichow, M.K. 2009. The Siberian Traps and the End-Permian mass extinction: A critical review. Chinese Science Bulletin, 54, 20-37. Download pdf.

(10) Stanley, S. M. (2010). Relation of Phanerozoic stable isotope excursions to climate, bacterial metabolism, and major extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(45), 19185-9. doi:10.1073/pnas.1012833107

(11) Thomas, E., & Shackleton, N. J. (1996). The Paleocene-Eocene benthic foraminiferal extinction and stable isotope anomalies. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 101(1), 401-441. doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.1996.101.01.20

(12) Wolf-Gladrow, B. D. A., Riebesell, U. L. F., & Burkhardt, S. (1999). composition of marine plankton, 461-476.

(13) Riebesell, U., Wolf-Gladrow, D. a., & Smetacek, V. (1993, January 21). Carbon dioxide limitation of marine phytoplankton growth rates. Nature. doi:10.1038/361249a0

Permisions:

Figure 1

Figure 2

Licensee: Gordon
Lehman

License Date: Jul 27, 2012

License Number: 2956900028735

Publication: Chinese Science Bulletin

Title: The Siberian Traps and the End-Permian mass extinction: a critical
review

Figure 3

Figure 4

By policy of Geological Society, London.

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What is it with squares in nature anyway?

Homo ad Quadratum

Homo ad Quadratum

Actually, perfect squares are extremely rare in nature. Squares are human constructs.

We imagine Pythagoras and the Greek philosophers drawing their squares in the sand, dividing the sides equally, connecting the divisions, and counting the resulting smaller squares to develop the concept of a number multiplied by itself. The concept is probably much older. Both the Babylonians and the Egyptians had methods for calculating volume based on squared empirical approximations of Pi.

It is easy to imagine our forebears drawing a square around a circle to get the notion that the area of the circle varied with the radius squared. If that were the end of it one could dismiss it as the artifact of a practical approach, but these squares keep coming back.

Newton’s laws of gravitation vary the square of distance. Gravity? We’re a long way from geometric lines in the sand now.

E=MCsquared is Einstein’s formula for the relationship (relativity) of mass and energy. The speed of light squared?

Yagahhdabekiddnme! Why not the cube root or something…

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Spreadsheet of Human History

Spreadsheet of human history

Spreadsheets are really graphs. This one has time on one axis and space on the other. The space geography is arbitrary but intended to sequence human dispersion from Africa.

I have lots of Teaching Company timelines and felt a yearning to tie them together. For instance, before this exercise I had no idea that while Charlemagne was being crowned Holy Roman Emperor; al-Khwarizmi was doing his algorithms in Persia, the Khmer were taking hold in Thailand, the stone heads were being erected on Easter Island, and the Anasazi were colonizing the Grand Canyon!

Certainly lots more can be done. Hot links would be good.

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Explaining Milankovitch to a Barmaid.

I had been drinking. And thinking, and remembering Einstein once said no scientific theory was any good unless you could explain it to a barmaid. Well, Albert, good luck with special relativity on a napkin, but Milankovitch?

A barmaid brought me another glass and it was slow and she was bored. “What do you know about Milankovitch?” I queried.

“Mawho?”

“The guy who proposed that the earth’s wobble caused the ice ages,” I suggested.

“Burrr.” She looked around as to see if someone had left a door open, but it was really, really slow.

“Ok, so tell me about this Milanko guy,” she grudgingly offered.

I drew eccentricity on my napkin.

 

“The earth’s orbit around the sun changes from this to that every hundred thousand years.”

“Why?”

“The gravitational attraction of Uranus…” She shot me a piercingly suspicious look. “And Jupiter and Saturn,” I quickly added.

“Reelee, do you ever have any fun?”

“Of course,” I parried, “but this is really important and Einstein said if it was any good I should be able to explain it to you.”

“Einstein?”

I drew the variation in obliquity.

 

“Why is the earth tipped?”

“Because it rotates around the sun leaning like the guys leaving here at closing time. And it wobbles like them too.”

“Ahguuh, you’re crazy.”

“No, 2 ½ degrees is like from San Francisco to Mendocino, or the straight up summer sun moving from Havana to Miami.”

“You’re crazy and you’re a nerd!”

“Or you could think of it as summer arriving 19 days early and leaving 19 days later.”

Now I was faced with explaining precession. Napkin would be no help. It’s not like I was going to say, “The earth’s spin has phase relative to its orbit around the sun so that sometimes winter and other times summer is closest to the sun.”

The clock read 3:42 PM and the first regular walked in. The barmaid was visibly relieved. I knew that I had failed to explain it and those Milankovitch theories were no good.

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An exceptional walk across the Golden Gate Bridge

An exceptional walk required exceptional procedures. Picture ID, affidavit signed and cosigned, hard hats issued.

Ancient key inserted, old bolts grudgingly lifted, a tiny passageway to the innards of the south tower.

Three human sardines at a time, an elevator so tiny rivets passed an inch from your nose. A dark ladder fifteen feet to a landing and this final few rungs out the portal to the top.

Relief! No exposed pitches in the howling wind. You could have a luncheon up here.

Elation, nerves settled, slightly bummed to be forbidden the last exposed pitch up the ladder to the light even though it was pretty much what my imagination had feared.

An hour, lots of ships

Retrospective.

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Skepticism

You know what skepticism is? Skepticism is doing yoga in your socks because it is cold and you didn’t start the fire soon enough. You know darned well it will be fine, you’ve even done it before when it was cold but it is against the rules.

Skepticism is driving without a seatbelt because it’s liberating and you are feeling it. You’re on it and you know in your bones you can steer around anything right now. You can remember when cars didn’t even have friggin’ seatbelts.

It’s leaving your shirt tail out or your shoelace untied for a bit just to see what happens. And because it’s not cool.

It’s farting in church and trying to look enraptured.

Skepticism is really the opposite of religion.

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Please Don’t Feed the Feedbacks

Feedback is central to the alarmist narrative on several levels. Negative feedback seven times more powerful for CO2 loss (from pre-industrial level, it is non-linear) than positive feedback for an equal gain is critical for the hypothesis that Milankovitch cycles explain why without exception temperature moves before CO2 in the ice cores. This may be why exceptionally powerful negative feedback parameters are built into the models.

Three hundred ninety-two point seven eight sounds like a lot of CO2 until you get to the parts per million, so let’s scale it back to something more humanly comprehensible: 39.28 per hundred thousand, 3.9 per ten thousand. Now we are getting to the scale of small towns and impressive gatherings.

Imagine ten thousand people marching up the Capital Mall. Imagine these to be all the atoms and molecules in the atmosphere. Four of them would be CO2. Ok, let’s round it up to 5 to account for the other “well mixed non-condensing” greenhouse gasses. It’s going to take some serious feedback for these five souls to control that crowd.

They do have disproportionate feedback. Water, the condensing and most powerful greenhouse gas is also found as a liquid and a solid in the atmosphere, but it is concentrated in the lower atmosphere. By mixing to high altitude CO2 is able to become a legitimate greenhouse agent, to the best of our follow the photon understanding of the greenhouse effect.

But there are only five of them in that crowd.

I was astonished so few reacted when Andrew Lacis posted the following on the NASA website in October 2010:

CO2 Removed

He did a model run with the non-condensing gasses entirely removed from a pre-industrial (only four at the march) level. The model responded with a global temperature drop of 4.6C the first year!

What an insult! Our collective human efforts since the industrial revolution digging carbon from the ground as well as prior and ongoing deforestation for fuel have been able to muster less than a 1 degree rise in global temperature according to the model. And this computer thinks it can take four guys out of a ten thousand man march and drop temperature that fast? Somebody, kick that thing!

Don’t believe anyone who says they know what global mean average temperature was during the glacial maxima. We really don’t know what it is today. But 4.6 degrees cooling is in the range of a glacial maximum. And it gets worse fast. In a decade the model would have more than 20 degrees cooling.

Try to imagine cooling at this rate in pre-industrial London. Within hours people would be running for shelter and lighting coal in their fireplaces. Within a month they would be ice skating on the Thames, even if it happened to be summer.

I think those feedbacks are way overfed.

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Reblogg

I’d actually written this as a reply on Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog but there seemed some sort of enfarction and the beauty of having your own is I can just post it here…

“And I still think a photon emitted by a cool object can be absorbed by a warmer object but the greater flux in the opposite direction means that the warm object heats the cool object anyway. But I wasn’t going to go there.”

Luv it. We Jacks of all trades gotta stick together.When you don’t understand something, all you have is statistics.

I mean really, you think a photon really CARES? Or you think the higher Pauling vibrational state of the warmer body actually repels the photon?

Well, I don’t know either, but this is the state of our understanding of the greenhouse effect in our atmosphere.

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Too Much on my Plate

I’ve been getting annoyed with the grade school conception of “plate” tectonics where everyone is identifying plates and their relative motions and saying stuff like the Japan Earthquake of 2011 was caused by the Pacific Plate sliding under Japan. It is as if the plates had their own means of locomotion and it ignores the fundamental difference between oceanic and continental “plates”.

The plates are just so much china, if you can indulge me here, and what is really interesting is the spreading centers that push ocean floor and the subduction zones or trenches that may actually draw ocean floor down down.

I recently was sent thus utube of the Japan Earthquakes of 2011.

The earthquake pattern before the major event was what one might expect from a plate sliding under another plate: widely dispersed random events. Beginning with the major event virtually all activity was focused where the Japan Trench meets the Ryukyu Trench and all other activity on both trenches virtually ceased.

Unhappily for Japan, it sits astride this juncture.

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